Nanaimo Employmnet Stats Questionable

Are Nanaimo Job Numbers Accurate?

Premier Christy Clark during her recent address to the VIEA meeting pointed to the creation of 5600 jobs in the Nanaimo region. This number comes from companing BC Stats numbers which claim 46,100 people employed in Nanaimo in Sept. 2011 and 51,700 employed in 2012. Simple math means 5600 more jobs. Right? Not so fast.

If you recall the same source for these statistics last year were reporting a jobless rate in Nanaimo ranging from 11.6%  to 16.3% during the first 8 months of 2011. During that time I tried to do some drilling down through these numbers as they didn't seem to line up with what was really happening in the community.

The conclusion I have come to is that getting accurate numbers for the job market in Nanaimo is much like trying to nail jello to the wall. You just can't do it. Firstly the BC Stat numbers are provided by Stats Canada who use a very small sample and  a mysterious formula to come up with these numbers which are practically meaningless.

To demonstrate how all 'over the map' the statistics are consider that in January of 2011 there were 52,800 people working in Nanaimo with an unemployment rate of 8.2%, by April 2011 there were 48,100 people working and a unemployment rate of 16.3%. This past September the report shows 51,700 people working and an unemployment rate of 4.6%.

If you ignore the 16% rate, which is likely the result of corrupt data, try and make sense of the Jan. 2011 number compared with Sept. 2012 number. In 2011 with 52,800 people working we had an unemployment rate of 8.2%, now in Sept. with 51,700 people working we have an unemployment rate of 4.6%. What can you deduce from these numbers? We actually have fewer people working but an unemployment rate of nearly half of what it was before?? 

So, what in blazes can you conclude from these 'statistics' except they really don't tell you much of anything. For example, there is no accurate way of measuring the number of people actually in the labour pool as people who simply move and look for work elsewhere don't report to anyone, they simply pack up and leave.

When people no longer qualify for EI and have to rely on social assistance they are no longer in the labour pool, even if they may in fact be looking for work.

As I have  commented before, if all the unemployed people in Nanaimo were to simply leave town, we would have a 0% unemployment rate.

Politicians wanting to use these numbers to show how good  a job they are doing creating jobs should be aware the same numbers can turn on a dime and show they are doing a terrible job.