Simplfying Colliery Dam Park Lakes

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What To Believe.....
That is The Question!

Originally the headlines declared a 40% chance of failure in the next 50 years and up to $30 million to rebuild the dams, meaning the lakes had to go. Remember?

Then the group of concerned park users, including professionals began scrutinizing the methods and events that led to this startling revelation. Some, with construction backgrounds, simply couldn't believe the prices being attached to rebuild such small dams made any sense at all, others simply couldn't believe that their little piece of neighbourhood paradise was going to be taken away under the guise of public safety concerns.

Events Timetable

In 2002 (or there abouts) the dam safety branch advised the city that a seismic study be done on the Colliery Dams Park dams. In 2009 the city hired an engineer to do such a study. Contained in the report this engineer finished in 2010 was the statement that the city did not consider rebuilding or repairing the dams as a good use of money, but were only interested in removal options. Nevertheless, in that report in 2010 it was stated that the dams could be shored up to an accpetable safety standard, but would require examination, when and if a seismic event did occur. The cost for this was about $500,000 per dam in 2010.

For reasons that are not clear, at that time city staff did not consult with council, nor did they warn area residents of the need to improve these dams. They chose to do yet another study. Why, is a very good question. An identified risk could have been remedied for about $1 million based on the engineers 2010 report.

By the time, the inundation study is complete, dam safety have adopted a different method of determining the hazard a dam presents, and now were looking to bring the dams up to a 1:10,000 year event, safety standard.

To put that standard into perspective our hospitals are build to a 1:3,000 standard and schools to a 1:2750 standard. So why these two little dams have to still stand after our schools and hospital collapse, challenges rational logic.

Project Cost ----- Pick a Number!

Remember we were told to replace the dams could cost $30 million. When pressed for the source of that number, staff never were able to identify the source of the $30 million figure. It would appear that the City Manager chose that number because he felt the professionals numbers were just too low.

City councillors were disbelieving when members of the Colliery Dam Preservation Society called these numbers into question, having full faith in the validity of the staff's estimates.

Well, now it turns out that the staff estimates were as far out as originally thought by the Preservation folk. The city hired engineers have now come in with figures pegging the cost to replace both dams at $8.6 million which includes a contingency.

The Real Price...

The engineer working with the Colliery Dam Preservation folk says there are qualified, bonded contractors who would GUARANTEE they could design and build both dams for $8.6 million!

These contractors who make their living doing such projects are so certain there is a good profit to be made by designing and building both of these dams for $8.6 million they will guarantee that price. No cost overruns! Period!

If contractors are that confident in the $8.6 million number, we are still likely over-paying for the dams but it really makes you wonder why we were pitched a $20 - $30 million number in the first place.

The Decision .....

Common sense logic (which does not seem to apply) would say replace the middle dam and leave the lower dam as is, and they will both be standing after our schools and hospital have crumbled in the event of the much feared 'Big One'.

Spending the $8.6 million to rebuild both dams to be the only things left standing in Nanaimo, rather than spending at least $7 million to rip them out and lose the lakes is the only viable option left on the table.

Ripping out these two lakes and destroying a park, 100 years in the making for a cost difference of $1.6 million simply makes no logical sense.

It will be interesting to see what this council decides on Monday night. I fear a couple of councillors minds were made up last October, when they were told of this grave danger, in a closed, in-camera meeting conducted by city staff.

By the way, when can we see the minutes from that meeting. I for one would like to see just what kind of information council acted upon. Remember a $30 million replacement cost would have been part of the information that formed their decision.