Ferry Rescue Plan Showing Cracks
The provincial government's own information
shows that the ferry rescue plan unveiled by Transportation Minister Todd Stone
this week is based on numbers that don't add up to a solution.
The Ferry Advisory Committee Chairs (FACC) are being asked to help tweak schedules to make the plan
more workable. But no amount of tweaking will change the fact that the cuts to
service and to seniors' discounts are side issues. The root problems
remain.
"Even after the cuts, the
system will still be unaffordable, unsustainable, and spiralling into deeper
trouble. The government is causing people hardship without much to show for it,
says Brian Hollingshead of the Southern Gulf Islands. "Tweaking won't change
that."
About a million British
Columbians live in coastal areas that depend on ferries. "The government is
starting to roll up essential transportation in this region without analysing
impacts," says Tony Law of Hornby-Denman. "Cutting service that people have come
to rely on to get to work and contribute to the economy requires more than
cursory consultation."
The FACC were briefed on
the government plan this week. It appears to be based on several unsupported
estimates.
· The plan is
based on traffic staying at 2011-2012 levels. This is already inaccurate.
Traffic has already fallen below this point, which means there is already a new
revenue shortfall, which is likely to grow with each new annual fare increase
and related traffic decline.
· There
appears to be no business case for the cuts, no analysis of their impact on
jobs, and no analysis of the economic and social costs to individuals,
communities and the province, including a comparison of those costs to the $14
million in cuts to non-major routes.
· The plan
estimates that 75 percent of traffic from the runs that are cut, on average,
will be redirected to other runs. There appears to be no data or analysis to
support this figure.
· The plan
estimates that the change to the senior's discount will reduce seniors' traffic
by 15 percent. Evidence from the UK on the effects of seniors discounts suggests
the loss will be greater. And it is unclear if the plan accounts for lost
revenue from vehicle fares that seniors would have paid on the foregone
trips.
· Minister
Todd Stone says the ferry system will face a revenue gap between $120 million
and $200 million in the next contract term, starting in 2016. There is no
evidence that the rescue plan will close that gap, while there is some evidence
to suggest the gap will grow wider.
· The
government chose the dollar amounts in the plan (for service cuts, operational
efficiencies, and capital infusion) so that fare increases would be limited to 4
percent a year. But by 2016, the pressure on fares will be even greater than it
is now. Something else will have to give to keep fares from growing even
faster.
In the business world,
cutting costs to stay ahead of falling revenue, without also fixing the cause of
the falling revenue, is a path to business failure. The cause of falling revenue
for ferries is unaffordable fares and traffic decline, and chronic government
underfunding. The rescue plan does not
fix this. Nor does it offer the FACC or coastal residents enough data and
information to let them offer alternatives to the flawed government
plan.
The FACC ask the government
to work with community representatives and local governments to find ways to fix
the core problem with the system, to build a vision for the BC coast and a more
solid plan for its essential transportation.
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