BC's Labour Market Forecast March 2013

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VANCOUVER, BC, Mar. 21, 2013/ Troy Media/ – Employment levels in B.C. rebounded in February and more than reversed January’s steep decline. Total estimated employment in the province rose 0.9 per cent or 19,800 persons from the previous month to reach a seasonally-adjusted 2.317 million persons. This marked the highest level since September.

Gains were observed in both the full-time sector which grew by 0.7 per cent, while part-time employment rebounded more than 1 per cent. Employment growth was matched by an expansion of the labour force, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.3 per cent.

Among industries, estimated gains were led by services-producing sectors, particularly the finance, insurance and real estate sector which rose 4 per cent, as well as accommodations/foodservices and public administration which both rose 3.4 per cent. Agriculture also recorded a sharp gain of 22 per cent, but the sector is relatively small.
February’s surge in employment, while statistically significant, should be viewed with caution and not necessarily as an indication of significant improvement in the economy, particularly as it comes off the heels of sharp prior month drop.

A near-synchronous movement of both the number employed and the size of the labour force – reflected in steady unemployment rates — suggest recent employment fluctuations are related in large part to the estimation process and sampling variability, rather than real employment changes. A moving average of the employment data, which smooths out some variability, points to a persistence of a weak hiring environment that has existed since early 2012.
We expect hiring to remain tempered this year with forecast employment growth of 1.3 per cent.

Vancouver Island-Coast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment edged higher by 0.7 per cent over the latest three month period, representing an increase of about 2,900 persons. Employment has trended higher since August, reversing 2012’s mid-year slump. While employment rose, the labour force expanded at a stronger pace pushing the unemployment up 0.3 percentage points to 6.2 per cent from three months prior. While some of the movement may reflect sampling variability, participation rates are rising back to more normal levels following a post-recession slump. This suggests some unemployed workers are rejoining the labour force with better job prospects.


Lower Mainland-Southwest
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were mixed. Employment levels were unchanged over the latest three month period. However, a sharp drop in the participation rate suggests a subset of unemployed temporarily left the labour market, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate. The regional unemployment rate fell 0.9 percentage points to 6.3 per cent.

Thompson-Okanagan
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment contracted sharply by 7,740 persons (3 per cent) over the latest three month period. While some of the loss may reflect sampling variability given a sharp decline in the labour force, the magnitude of decline suggests real employment losses during the period. However, the unemployment rate held stable at 6.3 per cent.

Kootenay
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 1,100 persons (1.4 per cent) over the latest three month period – extending the uptrend observed since mid-2012. Gains outpaced labour force expansion which contributed to a 0.3 percentage point drop in the regional unemployment rate. The unemployment rate fell to 7 per cent.

Cariboo
The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were mixed. Employment fell by 4,600 persons (5.4 per cent) over the latest three month period. However, the contraction was matched by a coinciding decline in the labour force, suggesting part of the employment decline is due to sampling variability rather a reflection of sharp labour market deterioration. This is further supported by an easing of the unemployment rate which was down 0.2 percentage points to 5.5 per cent as compared to three months prior.

North Coast-Nechako
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 2,830 persons (7.5 per cent) over the latest three month period which outpaced the pace of labour force expansion of 3.5 per cent. As a result, the regional unemployment rate fell 3.1 percentage points from three-months earlier to 7.1 per cent.

Northeast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Regional employment contracted by 1,060 persons (2.6 per cent) over the latest three month period. Employment declines outpaced labour force expansion which likely yielded upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Unemployment rate estimates were suppressed in recent months, reflecting confidentiality concerns, but was estimated at 4.1 per cent in February. In October, the unemployment rate was 3.8 per cent.

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