BC Labour Forecast May 2013

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VANCOUVER, BC, May 17, 2013/ Troy Media/ – B.C.’s labour market showed a modest improvement in April, as employment rose, partially reversing the prior month’s decline. Total estimated employment reached a seasonally-adjusted 2.312 million persons in April, up 9,500 persons or 0.4 per cent from March.

The gain was led by a rebound in full-time employment, which increased by 16,500 persons or 0.9 per cent. Among industries, monthly employment gains were led by a surge in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing sector (11 per cent) and the healthcare and social services sector (5.4 per cent). These gains were offset in part by significant declines in construction, manufacturing and accommodations and food services.

Job gains are far better than losses, but April’s employment rebound does little to change the trajectory of the labour market. Despite the rebound, the hiring environment remains weak with total employment in line with the range observed during the first quarter and still below mid-2012 levels. Relative to same-month 2012, employment was down 0.3 per cent, significantly underperforming national employment growth of about 0.9 per cent.

On a slightly more positive note, April job growth pulled the provincial unemployment rate down from 7 per cent in March to 6.4 per cent. This is a reversion back to near levels observed earlier in the year and below with the range observed in 2012.

However, the steady unemployment rate partially reflects a downswing in the provincial labour force participation rate. Some prospective workers may have stepped back from the labour market given weak job prospects rather than join the ranks of officially unemployed.

Average employment for the first four months of 2013 is only slightly above same-period in 2012. Given the weak hiring environment and sluggish economy, 2013 employment growth of less than 1 per cent in 2013 would not be a surprise.

Lower Mainland-Southwest
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment levels rose by a modest 15,980 persons over the latest three-month period, marking a gain of 1.1 per cent. Employment gains were matched by growth in the labour force, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7 per cent

Vancouver Island-Coast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment dipped by 2 per cent over the latest three month period, representing a drop of about 7,950 persons from three-months prior. Employment declines outpaced an adjustment in the labour force, leading to higher unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 6.4 per cent.


Thompson-Okanagan
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were mixed. Employment dipped by an estimated 920 persons or 0.4 per cent over the latest three month period. However, the regional unemployment rate slipped 0.4 percentage points to 5.9 per cent of the labour force as the participation rate contracted.

Kootenay
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 3,850 persons (5 per cent) over the latest three month period – extending the uptrend observed since mid-2012. Gains outpaced labour force expansion which contributed to a sharp cut in the unemployment rate. The regional unemployment rate fell 3.5 percentage points to 4.4 per cent. Strong hiring has led to multi-year highs in the labour force participation rates.

Cariboo
The latest seasonally-adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Employment fell by 4,765 persons (5.7 per cent) over the latest three month period. The decline outpaced a participation rate induced contraction in the labour force, leading to an increase of 0.6 percentage points in the unemployment rate to 5.7 per cent compared to three-month prior.

North Coast-Nechako
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were positive. Employment rose by 670 persons (1.7 per cent) over the latest three month period. Despite growth in labour force participation, regional unemployment fell by 0.5 percentage points to 7.5 per cent of the labour force relative to three-months prior.

Northeast
The latest seasonally adjusted, short-term trends in labour market indicators were negative. Regional employment contracted by 1,525 persons (4 per cent) over the latest three month period. While the labour force also contracted over the same period on a lower participation rate, the regional unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent making the highest rate over at least the past year. A three-month comparison is unavailable as recent data was suppressed due, likely reflecting confidentiality concerns but this was up from 4.6 per cent March.

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